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Adapting to uncertainty associated with short-term climate variability changes in irrigated Mediterranean farming systems

Dono, Gabriele and Cortignani, Raffaele and Doro, Luca and Giraldo, Luca and Ledda, Luigi and Pasqui, Massimiliano and Roggero, Pier Paolo (2013) Adapting to uncertainty associated with short-term climate variability changes in irrigated Mediterranean farming systems. Agricultural Systems, Vol. 117 , p. 1-12. ISSN 0308-521X. eISSN 1873-2267. Article.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2013.01.005

Abstract

Short-term perspectives appear to be relevant in formulating adaptation measures to changed climate variability (CCV) as a part of the European Rural Development Policy (RDP). Indeed, short-run CCV is the variation that farmers would perceive to such an extent that a political demand would be generated for adapting support measures. This study evaluates some relevant agronomic and economic impacts of CCV as modelled in a near future time period at the catchment scale in a rural district in Sardinia (Italy). The effects of CCV are assessed in relation to the availability of irrigation water and the irrigation needs of maize.
The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to simulate the impact of key climatic variables on the irrigation water requirements and yields of maize. A three-stage discrete stochastic programming model was then applied to simulate management and economic responses to those changes.
The overall economic impact of a simulated CCV was found to be primarily caused by reduced stability in the future supply of irrigation water. Adaptations to this instability will most likely lead to a higher level of groundwater extraction and a reduction in the demand for labour. Changed climate variability will most likely reduce the income potential of small-scale farming. The most CCV-vulnerable farm typologies were identified, and the implications were discussed in relation to the development of adaptation measures within the context of the Common Agricultural Policy of European Union.

Item Type:Article
ID Code:9692
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Changed climate variability, DSP, EPIC, adaptation, water management, irrigation
Subjects:Area 07 - Scienze agrarie e veterinarie > AGR/02 Agronomia e coltivazioni erbacee
Divisions:001 Università di Sassari > 02 Centri > Centro interdipartimentale Nucleo di ricerca sulla desertificazione
001 Università di Sassari > 01-a Nuovi Dipartimenti dal 2012 > Agraria
Publisher:Elsevier Science
ISSN:0308-521X
eISSN:1873-2267
Deposited On:24 Mar 2014 09:25

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