titoli, abstracts, parole chiave >>>
Cycles in crime and economy: leading, lagging and coincident behaviors

Detotto, Claudio and Otranto, Edoardo (2012) Cycles in crime and economy: leading, lagging and coincident behaviors. Journal of quantitative criminology, Vol. 28 (2), p. 295-317. eISSN 1573-7799. Article.

Full text not available from this repository.

DOI: 10.1007/s10940-011-9139-5

Alternative URLs:

Abstract

In the last decades, the interest in the relationship between crime and business cycle has widely increased. It is a diffused opinion that a causal relationship goes from economic variables to criminal activities, but this causal effect is observed only for some typology of crimes, such as property crimes. In this work we examine the possibility of the existence of some common factors (interpreted as cyclical components) driving the dynamics of Gross Domestic Product and a large set of criminal types by using the nonparametric version of the dynamic factor model. A first aim of this exercise is to detect some comovements between the business cycle and the cyclical component of some typologies of crime, which could evidence some relationships between these variables; a second purpose is to select which crime types are related to the business cycle and if they are leading, coincident or lagging. Italy is the case study for the time span 1991:1–2004:12; the crime typologies are constituted by the 22 official categories classified by the Italian National Statistical Institute. The study finds that most of the crime types show a counter-cyclical behavior with respect to the overall economic performance, and only a few of them have an evident relationship with the business cycle. Furthermore, some crime offenses, such as bankruptcy, embezzlement and fraudulent insolvency, seem to anticipate the business cycle, in line with recent global events.

Item Type:Article
ID Code:9601
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Business cycle, crime, common factors, dynamic factor models
Subjects:Area 13 - Scienze economiche e statistiche > SECS-P/01 Economia politica
Divisions:002 Altri enti e centri di ricerca del Nord Sardegna > CRENoS-Centro Ricerche Economiche Nord Sud, Università di Cagliari e Università di Sassari
001 Università di Sassari > 01-a Nuovi Dipartimenti dal 2012 > Scienze economiche e aziendali
Publisher:Springer
eISSN:1573-7799
Copyright Holders:© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011
Deposited On:04 Feb 2014 12:32

I documenti depositati in UnissResearch sono protetti dalle leggi che regolano il diritto d'autore

Repository Staff Only: item control page