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Testing the effects of crime on the Italian economy

Detotto, Claudio and Pulina, Manuela (2010) Testing the effects of crime on the Italian economy. Economics Bulletin, Vol. 30 (3), p. 2063-2074. eISSN 1545-2921. Article.

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This paper aims at assessing the causal and temporal relationships between crime and the economic indicators related to the aggregated demand function. The case study is Italy and a quarterly frequency is used (1981:1-2005:4). A Vector Autoregressive Correction Mechanism (VECM) is employed after having assessed the integration and cointegration status of the variables under investigation. Long and short run dynamics are estimated. A Granger causality test is also implemented to establish temporal interrelationships. The main findings are that, in the short run, crime positively effects GDP and government expenditure, while has a crowding out effect on exports. In the long run, crime positively leads imports and inflation, whereas negatively investments and government expenditure.

Item Type:Article
ID Code:6933
Uncontrolled Keywords:Crime, aggregated demand, short and long run dynamics, Granger causality
Subjects:Area 13 - Scienze economiche e statistiche > SECS-P/03 Scienza delle finanze
Area 13 - Scienze economiche e statistiche > SECS-P/01 Economia politica
Divisions:002 Altri enti e centri di ricerca del Nord Sardegna > CRENoS-Centro Ricerche Economiche Nord Sud, Università di Cagliari e Università di Sassari
001 Università di Sassari > 01 Dipartimenti > Economia, impresa, regolamentazione
Publisher:Economics Bulletin
Deposited On:10 Jan 2012 15:58

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