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A Time varying parameter approach to analyze the macroeconomic consequences of crime

Detotto, Claudio and Otranto, Edoardo (2010) A Time varying parameter approach to analyze the macroeconomic consequences of crime. Cagliari, CRENoS-CUEC. p. 23 (Working Papers CRENoS, 2010, 2). ISBN 978-88-84-67-569-9. Working Paper.

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Abstract

Criminal activity performs like a tax on the entire economy: it discourages domestic and foreign direct investments, it reduces firms’ competitiveness, and reallocates resources creating uncertainty and inefficiency. Although the impact of economic variables on crime has been widely investigated, there is not much concern about crime also affecting the overall economic performance. This work aims to bridge this gap by presenting an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic consequences of criminal activity. Italy is the case study for the time span 1979-2002. Dealing with a state space framework, a time varying parameter approach is employed to measure the impact of criminality on real Gross Domestic Product along time, and to measure the asymmetric impact in recession and expansion periods. The analysis is completed evaluating the effects of crime fluctuations in the long period by an impulse response analysis.

Item Type:Working Paper
ID Code:5638
Status:Published
Uncontrolled Keywords:Business cycle, crime, crowding-out effects, economic growth, impulse response analysis, Kalman filter
Subjects:Area 13 - Scienze economiche e statistiche > SECS-S/01 Statistica
Divisions:002 Altri enti e centri di ricerca del Nord Sardegna > CRENoS-Centro Ricerche Economiche Nord Sud, Università di Cagliari e Università di Sassari
001 Università di Sassari > 01 Dipartimenti > Economia, impresa, regolamentazione
Publisher:CRENoS-CUEC
Copyright Holders:© CUEC 2010
ISBN:978-88-84-67-569-9
Publisher Policy:Depositato per gentile concessione del CRENoS e di CUEC
Deposited On:23 Feb 2011 10:06

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