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Spatial analysis of gypsy moth populations in Sardinia using geostatistical and climate models

Cocco, Arturo and Cossu, Antonio Q. and Erre, Patrizia and Nieddu, Giovanni and Luciano, Pietro (2010) Spatial analysis of gypsy moth populations in Sardinia using geostatistical and climate models. Agricultural and Forest Entomology, Vol. 12 (4), p. 417-426. eISSN 1461-9563. Article.

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DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-9563.2010.00488.x

Abstract

1. Spatial fluctuations of the Sardinian population of the gypsy moth Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) were characterized using geostatistical and climate models. Data on gypsy moth egg mass abundance recorded at 282 permanent monitoring sites from 1980 to 2004 were incorporated in a geographic information system with the vegetational, geomorphological and pedological features of the sites.
2. Statistical analyses revealed that the relative outbreak frequency was related to the predominant host tree, slope and elevation of the monitoring sites, whereas there was no correlation between outbreak frequency and exposure and soil type.
3. By using bioclimatic modelling, probability maps of gypsy moth outbreaks were generated. The model identified a probability surface with climatic conditions favourable to gypsy moth outbreaks and thus potentially subject to defoliation. The maps included 92 sites where outbreaks never occurred, suggesting that the Sardinian climate may not be a determinant factor for gypsy moth outbreaks.
4. The geostatistical method cokriging with outbreak frequency as a covariate was found to be the most suitable technique to estimate gypsy moth egg mass abundance. Semivariograms showed spatial correlation of egg mass abundance within the range 18.5–53 km. The results obtained were used to create regional gypsy moth distribution maps by cokriging, which demonstrated the outbreak foci and different infestation levels at each monitoring area. These results can help to delimit the treatment areas and develop rational gypsy moth management programmes.

Item Type:Article
ID Code:5507
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:FloraMap, geographic information system, kriging, Lymantria dispar, probability map, spatial distribution, Sardinia
Subjects:Area 07 - Scienze agrarie e veterinarie > AGR/03 Arboricoltura generale e coltivazioni arboree
Area 07 - Scienze agrarie e veterinarie > AGR/11 Entomologia generale e applicata
Divisions:001 Università di Sassari > 01 Dipartimenti > Economia e sistemi arborei
001 Università di Sassari > 01 Dipartimenti > Protezione delle piante
002 Altri enti e centri di ricerca del Nord Sardegna > Arpas-Agenzia regionale per la protezione dell'ambiente della Sardegna, Dipartimento di Sassari
Publisher:Blackwell / Wiley
eISSN:1461-9563
Copyright Holders:© 2010 The Authors, Agricultural and Forest Entomology © 2010 The Royal Entomological Society
Deposited On:15 Feb 2011 10:19

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