De Sanctis, Giacomo and Donatelli, Marcello and Orsini, Roberto and Toderi, Marco and Roggero, Pier Paolo (2008) Impact of different climate change scenarios on rainfed cropping systems in Central Italy. Italian Journal of Agrometeorology, Vol. 13 (2), p. 38-45. ISSN 1824-8705. Article.
Full text not available from this repository.
The rainfed cropping system based on the durum wheat-sunflower rotation is very common in Central Italy, to the point of
being the almost exclusive system in some areas. The predominance of the system, and the suboptimal environmental conditions
in which such system is implemented make it at risk in scenarios of possible worsening of weather patterns as estimated
by weather change scenarios. The objectives of this paper were: 1) to estimate the impact of climate change on the
agronomic performance and long term soil fertility; 2) to explore adaptation strategies and to identify research needs. Three
years of field data on current cropping system practices were collected at two microcatchments of the Marche (Central Italy)
to calibrate the cropping systems simulation model CropSyst. Crops yield and soil organic matter dynamics were analyzed
in relation to increased air temperature and CO2 concentration, as forecasted by different future climate scenarios.
To assess the impact of climatic change on mean crop yields and variability, two fifty-years equilibrium climate datasets
were generated from a local 20-years daily temperature and rainfall dataset assuming for each scenario constant climate at
different atmospheric CO2 concentration: “baseline” [CO2] = 350 ppm; 2040 equilibrium [CO2] = 450 ppm. To assess the
long term impact of climatic change on soil organic matter content, three 100-years transient climatic scenarios were generated
from a 20-years daily temperature and rainfall dataset of a neighbouring station: transient “baseline” scenarios with
current [CO2] = 350 ppm; transient “A2” and “B2” scenarios, characterised by an yearly increase of [CO2] starting from
current conditions to final values of 840 and 620 ppm respectively.
Under 2040 equilibrium scenario, sunflower showed a slight increase of mean grain yield +12%, while durum wheat grain
yield was not significantly different from “baseline”. Under “baseline” transient scenarios and starting from a current soil
organic matter content of 0.9%, CropSyst simulated a progressive decrease of soil organic matter down to 0.6% after 100
years. Under “B2” and “A2” scenarios, increased soil temperature simulated by CropSyst resulted in a sharper decrease of
the soil organic matter, leading respectively 0.5% and 0.4% after 100 years. Results suggest that while climate change impacts
on current rainfed cropping systems of central Italy may not be visible in the short term on crop yields, long term sustainability
is expected to decline noticeably, even under “baseline” climatic scenarios. In terms of bio-physical research,
further efforts should be addressed on the relationships between agronomic practices and seasonal dynamics of soil organic
matter mineralization due to soil temperature.
I documenti depositati in UnissResearch sono protetti dalle leggi che regolano il diritto d'autore
Repository Staff Only: item control page