Mereu, Valentina (2010) Climate change impact on durum wheat in Sardinia. Doctoral Thesis.
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This study involve the assessment of potential climate change impact and changing in ambient
carbon dioxide (CO2) levels on production and phenology for two of the most important varieties of
durum wheat at four experimental sites in Sardinia, differents for soil, climate conditions and
management practices, and provide directions for possible adaptation strategies.
The CERES-Wheat model in combination with a stochastic Weather Generator (WG) were
used to quantify the climate change impacts on wheat growth and production. The synthetic weather
series, representing the future climates, are generated by modifying the WG parameters according to
the features of a set of GCM-based climate change scenarios. Twenty-seven climate change scenarios
were generated, for each experimental site, by pattern scaling thecnique, considering three values of
climate sensitivity and four emission scenarios.
The use of this approach allowed to explore a wide range of possible future change in climate
and give a more likely crop impact assessment.
The results obtained show changes in wheat yield and phenology differents for climate change
scenarios, varieties and locations analysed. As in other similar studies, it is projected that the
interaction of multiple factors, that seem to cancel each other out, may diluite the climate change
impacts. The adaptation strategy considered (shift in planting date) seems a usefull strategy in
response to climate change.
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