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Bivariate VAR models to test Granger causality between tourist demand and supply: implications for regional sustainable growth

Biagi, Bianca and Pulina, Manuela (2009) Bivariate VAR models to test Granger causality between tourist demand and supply: implications for regional sustainable growth. Papers in Regional Science, Vol. 88 (1), p. 231-244. eISSN 1435-5957. Article.

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DOI: 10.1111/j.1435-5957.2008.00176.x

Abstract

The relationship between tourist demand and supply is investigated employing four time series models. To test for Granger causality a bivariate vector autoregression framework is used. Empirical results from each model are derived for the island of Sardinia (Italy) over the time span 1955 to 2004. The first model suggests supply is demand-driven; the second model implies a bi-directional Granger-causal relationship between demand and capacity. The third and fourth models indicate demand is quality-driven. This empirical finding implies that an environmental conservation policy may be feasible without compromising the number of tourists visiting Sardinia and hence its economic growth.

Item Type:Article
ID Code:1727
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:O18, O21, C32, L83, Sardinia
Subjects:Area 13 - Scienze economiche e statistiche > SECS-P/05 Econometria
Area 13 - Scienze economiche e statistiche > SECS-P/02 Politica economica
Divisions:002 Altri enti e centri di ricerca del Nord Sardegna > CRENoS-Centro Ricerche Economiche Nord Sud, Università di Cagliari e Università di Sassari
001 Università di Sassari > 01 Dipartimenti > Economia, impresa, regolamentazione
Publisher:Blackwell / Wiley
eISSN:1435-5957
Copyright Holders:© 2008 the author(s), Journal compilation © 2008 RSAI
Additional Information:Pubblicato online il 28 giugno 2008.
Deposited On:18 Aug 2009 10:05

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