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Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

Ewert, Frank and Rötter, Reimund and Bindi, Marco and Webber, Heidi and Trknka, Miroslav and Kersebaum, Kurt Christian and Olesen, Jørgen ivind and van Ittersum, Martin K. and Janssen, Sander and Rivington, Mike and Semenov, Mikhail A. and Wallach, Daniel and Porter, John R. and Stewart, Derek and Verhagen, Jan and Gaiser, Thomas and Palosuo, Taru Irmeli and Tao, Fulu and Nendel, Claas and Roggero, Pier Paolo and Bartošová, Lenka and Asseng, Senthold (2014) Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change. Environmental Modelling & Software , in press. ISSN 1873-6726. eISSN 1364-8152. Article.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.003

Abstract

The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches.

Item Type:Article
ID Code:10653
Status:In Press
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Uncertainty, scaling, integrated assessment, risk assessment, adaptation, crop models
Subjects:Area 07 - Scienze agrarie e veterinarie > AGR/02 Agronomia e coltivazioni erbacee
Divisions:001 Università di Sassari > 01-a Nuovi Dipartimenti dal 2012 > Agraria
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:1873-6726
eISSN:1364-8152
Deposited On:20 Jan 2015 13:41

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