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Time series autoregressive integrated moving average modeling of test-day milk yields of dairy ewes

Macciotta, Nicolò Pietro Paolo and Cappio Borlino, Aldo and Pulina, Giuseppe (2000) Time series autoregressive integrated moving average modeling of test-day milk yields of dairy ewes. Journal of Dairy Science, Vol. 83 (5), p. 1094-1103. eISSN 1525-3198. Article.

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Abstract

Monthly test-day milk yields of 1200 dairy Sarda ewes were analyzed by time-series methods. Autocorrelation functions were calculated for lactations within parity classes and altitude of location of flocks. Spectral analysis of the successions of data was developed by Fourier transformation, and different Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average models were fitted. The separation of deterministic and stochastic components highlighted the autoregressive feature of milk production pattern. The forecasting power of autoregressive integrated moving average models was tested by predicting total milk production for a standardized lactation length of 225 d from only a few testday records. Results indicated a greater forecasting capacity in comparison with standard methods and suggested further development of time-series analysis for studying lactation curves with more sophisticated methods, such as wavelet decomposition and neural network models.

Item Type:Article
ID Code:1040
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Test day, ewe lactation curves, time-series analysis
Subjects:Area 07 - Scienze agrarie e veterinarie > AGR/17 Zootecnica generale e miglioramento genetico
Area 07 - Scienze agrarie e veterinarie > AGR/19 Zootecnica speciale
Divisions:001 Università di Sassari > 01 Dipartimenti > Scienze zootecniche
Publisher:American Dairy Science Association
eISSN:1525-3198
Deposited On:18 Aug 2009 10:04

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