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Feature article: “Periodicities in mean sea-level fluctuations and climate change proxies: Lessons from the modelling for coastal management” by R.G.V. Baker and S.A. McGowan

De Jonge, Victor N. and Ozturk, Derya and Parker, Albert and Pascucci, Vincenzo (2014) Feature article: “Periodicities in mean sea-level fluctuations and climate change proxies: Lessons from the modelling for coastal management” by R.G.V. Baker and S.A. McGowan. Ocean & Coastal Management, Vol. 98 , p. 186. ISSN 0964-5691. Article.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.06.011

Abstract

The authors present amongst other things that “the question of whether sea levels and global temperatures are accelerating or decelerating is a major source of current debate” and that “a model can include both anthropogenic warming and complex natural cycles and that these cycles can form or bifurcate into extreme events close to critical values”. The results of a data analysis of a large number of tidal stations and a wide range of climate proxies suggest a significant correlation to a particular type of hybrid climate model that has deterministic and chaotic elements. The results allow for a discussion of a ‘planner's dilemma’ of determining whether extreme events are natural fluctuations or from anthropogenic warming; and a ‘manager's risk imperative’ that suggests that stable but chaotic risk cycles can operate within deterministic boundaries that are quantifiable and convertible into long-term management strategies.

Item Type:Article
ID Code:10011
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Climate change, sea levels, anthropogenic warming, complex natural cycles
Subjects:Area 04 - Scienze della terra > GEO/02 Geologia stratigrafica e sedimentologica
Divisions:001 Università di Sassari > 01-a Nuovi Dipartimenti dal 2012 > Scienze della Natura e del Territorio
Publisher:Elsevier Applied Science
ISSN:0964-5691
Deposited On:06 Aug 2014 16:12

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