De Jonge, Victor N. and Ozturk, Derya and Parker, Albert and Pascucci, Vincenzo (2014) Feature article: “Periodicities in mean sea-level fluctuations and climate change proxies: Lessons from the modelling for coastal management” by R.G.V. Baker and S.A. McGowan. Ocean & Coastal Management, Vol. 98 , p. 186. ISSN 0964-5691. Article.
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The authors present amongst other things that “the question of whether sea levels and global temperatures are accelerating or decelerating is a major source of current debate” and that “a model can include both anthropogenic warming and complex natural cycles and that these cycles can form or bifurcate into extreme events close to critical values”. The results of a data analysis of a large number of tidal stations and a wide range of climate proxies suggest a significant correlation to a particular type of hybrid climate model that has deterministic and chaotic elements. The results allow for a discussion of a ‘planner's dilemma’ of determining whether extreme events are natural fluctuations or from anthropogenic warming; and a ‘manager's risk imperative’ that suggests that stable but chaotic risk cycles can operate within deterministic boundaries that are quantifiable and convertible into long-term management strategies.
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